409 Cross Creek Rd

Hallsville, TX 75602

$144,900C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 2001 · Manufactured · Pending · 149 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,448/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$195
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $189/mo
• Annual: $2,268/yr
• Cap rate: 7.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.59%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $40,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $189 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (0.1% below list).
• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#117 in TX, #3,765 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hallsville ISD (town): math 30% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #490 of 826 in TX (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 85 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.