15029 Irving Ave

Dolton, IL 60419

$214,900D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,233 sqft · Built 1962 · SingleFamily · Active · 149 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,510/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$842
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $14/mo
• Annual: $167/yr
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.28%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 1.17%
• Cash to close: $60,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14 ($167/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $215k).
• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $189k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#263 in IL, #4,883 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Thornton Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 7% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #594 of 620 in IL (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.2% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.7%/yr); 129 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $33k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $215k implies a 258% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 9.3% in Dolton — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $2,510/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 919% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?