15103 E Palisades Blvd

Fountain Hills, AZ 85268

$925,000D-

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,151 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Active · 71 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,325/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,851
• Tax + insurance: −$555
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,118
• Net cashflow: $-1,198/mo
• Annual: $-14,379/yr
• Cap rate: 4.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.55%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $259,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $925k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $713k (22.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $533k (42.4% below list).
• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($870k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $533k (42.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $28k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#45 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Fountain Hills Unified District (4247) (other): math 32% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #61 of 249 in AZ (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mcdowell Mountain Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #243 of 1,109 statewide, top 23%, 297 students, 32% FRL); Fountain Hills Middle School (math 31% / reading 45%, grade F, #54 of 218 statewide, top 25%, 390 students, 22% FRL); Fountain Hills High School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #84 of 381 statewide, top 23%, 466 students, 17% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 453 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $74k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $437k; list at $925k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 4→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.3% in Fountain Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,325/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($113k/yr) (locally 374% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.