4115 Harrison Ave

Rockford, IL 61108

$2,449,000B-

1056 bd · 576.0 ba · 21,516 sqft · Built 1970 · MultiFamily · Active · 159 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $40,023/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$12,843
• Tax + insurance: −$4,082
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$8,405
• Net cashflow: $14,694/mo
• Annual: $176,324/yr
• Cap rate: 13.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.71%
• DSCR: 2.14
• 1% rule: 1.63%
• Cash to close: $685,720

Investor read

• This is a 24 × 44-bed/24.0-bath units multifamily listed at $2.45M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15k ($176k/yr) — positive. Per door: $612/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($40k rent vs $2.45M).
• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($2.16M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.16M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $17k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $73k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#876 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Rockford SD 205 (urban): math 12% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #533 of 620 in IL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.1%/yr); 114 active listings in the ZIP; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.50M; list at $2.45M implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $686k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 6.1% in Rockford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $40,023/mo this rent would consume 746% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 1199% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?