3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,207 sqft ·
Built 1978
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 64 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,595/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$493
Tax + insurance
−$677
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$335
Net cashflow
$90/mo
Annual
$1,083/yr
Cap rate
12.89%
Cash-on-cash
23.56%
DSCR
2.05
1% rule
1.70%
Cash to close
$26,320
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $94k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $90 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $94k).
It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $88k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $650 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#640 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
Sweetwater ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #681 of 826 in TX (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: East Ridge El (math 27% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 238 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 55% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 15 units permitted in Nolan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Nolan County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
3 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $39k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 6.1% in Sweetwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
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· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29