229 Ponderosa Dr

Stonewall, MS 39363

$45,000B

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,107 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Active · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $948/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax + insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$199
• Net cashflow: $403/mo
• Annual: $4,839/yr
• Cap rate: 17.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.40%
• DSCR: 2.71
• 1% rule: 2.11%
• Cash to close: $12,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $45k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $403 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($948 rent vs $45k).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $44k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $509 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#325 in MS) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Quitman School District (rural): math 13% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #106 of 130 in MS (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP.
• Clarke County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (36%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $38k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.