2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,351 sqft ·
Built 1998
· Condo
· Active
· 164 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,329/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,830
Tax + insurance
−$853
HOA
−$630
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$909
Net cashflow
$107/mo
Annual
$1,285/yr
Cap rate
8.13%
Cash-on-cash
6.55%
DSCR
1.29
1% rule
1.24%
Cash to close
$97,720
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $349k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $107 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $349k).
It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($307k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $307k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Lely Elementary School (math 45% / reading 46%, grade D-, #1,247 of 2,144 statewide, top 59%, 499 students, 62% FRL); Lely High School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #304 of 667 statewide, top 47%, 1,504 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Collier average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 900 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $186k; list at $349k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $4,329/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 550% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-2SZP4GFZWK5CDQ
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29