5647 Lake Rd

Galway, NY 12074

$339,900D

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,550 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,751/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,782
• Tax + insurance: −$515
• HOA: −$42
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-956/mo
• Annual: $-11,478/yr
• Cap rate: 2.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.06%
• DSCR: 0.46
• 1% rule: 0.52%
• Cash to close: $95,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $340k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-956 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $171k (49.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (48.5% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $171k (49.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#580 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A, cost of living B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Galway Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #274 of 590 in NY (top 46%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Joseph Henry Elementary School (math 52% / reading 67%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 403 students, 28% FRL); Galway Junior/Senior High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #946 of 1,100 statewide, top 88%, 411 students, 32% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $275k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.