The Heron Plan

Brent, FL 32505

$74,900C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 497 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,340/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$704
• Tax + insurance: −$224
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $131/mo
• Annual: $1,567/yr
• Cap rate: 7.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.17%
• DSCR: 1.19
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $37,589

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $75k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $131 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• It's been on market 497 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $928 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#484 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Montclair Elementary School (math 42% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,684 of 2,144 statewide, top 79%, 379 students, 91% FRL); Bellview Middle School (math 17% / reading 23%, grade F, #558 of 571 statewide, top 98%, 992 students, 76% FRL); Escambia High School (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #529 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,655 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 58% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Escambia average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 309 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 497 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.