4 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,292 sqft ·
Built 1947
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 20 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,758/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$918
Tax + insurance
−$143
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$369
Net cashflow
$328/mo
Annual
$3,940/yr
Cap rate
8.54%
Cash-on-cash
8.04%
DSCR
1.36
1% rule
1.00%
Cash to close
$49,000
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $328 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 59/100 on livability (#295 in OR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-; Watch: crime D+, health & safety D+, amenities F.
Santiam Canyon SD 129J (rural): math 27% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #121 of 183 in OR (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Santiam Elementary School (248 students, 70% FRL); Santiam Junior/Senior High School (math 15% / reading 54%, grade F, #90 of 143 statewide, top 65%, 312 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 30% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).
Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Current owner paid $49k; list at $175k implies a 257% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-2TK4YY4967X9TN
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29