3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,280 sqft ·
Built 2008
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 41 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,769/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,074
Tax + insurance
−$499
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$372
Net cashflow
$-176/mo
Annual
$-2,107/yr
Cap rate
5.26%
Cash-on-cash
-3.67%
DSCR
0.84
1% rule
0.86%
Cash to close
$57,344
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-176 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (15.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (13.6% below list).
It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $174k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#122 in TX, #3,814 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute C-, crime D+, employment D+.
Belton ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #285 of 826 in TX (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Tarver El (math 40% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,283 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 798 students, 33% FRL); North Belton Middle (math 39% / reading 42%, grade F, #637 of 1,662 statewide, top 39%, 857 students, 38% FRL); Belton H S (math 39% / reading 46%, grade F, #721 of 1,632 statewide, top 45%, 1,941 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 1126 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).
Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $125k; list at $205k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.6% in Temple — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-2V13JNE3PM2BZZ
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29