12 bd · 4.0 ba ·
3,134 sqft ·
Built 1940
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 65 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$5,795/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,648
Tax + insurance
−$588
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,217
Net cashflow
$1,342/mo
Annual
$16,103/yr
Cap rate
9.48%
Cash-on-cash
11.39%
DSCR
1.51
1% rule
1.15%
Cash to close
$141,400
Investor read
This is a 4 × 3-bed/3.0-bath units multifamily listed at $505k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive. Per door: $335/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $505k).
It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($475k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $475k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Buder Elem. (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #967 of 1,115 statewide, top 88%, 403 students, 99% FRL); Gateway Middle (math 0% / reading 8%, grade F, #389 of 391 statewide, top 100%, 506 students, 99% FRL); Roosevelt High (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #517 of 521 statewide, top 100%, 460 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 80% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 151 active listings in the ZIP; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
7 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $141k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $5,795/mo this rent would consume 99% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 922% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-2V4WP7DJWJW9CY
· Data 22 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29