3 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,668 sqft ·
Built 1901
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 31 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,082/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$996
Tax + insurance
−$316
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$437
Net cashflow
$334/mo
Annual
$4,004/yr
Cap rate
8.40%
Cash-on-cash
7.53%
DSCR
1.34
1% rule
1.10%
Cash to close
$53,172
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $190k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $334 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $184k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#523 in PA, #4,841 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
Williamsport Area SD (urban): math 38% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #349 of 539 in PA (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: built in 1901 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 188 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 73 units permitted in Lycoming County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lycoming County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $100k; list at $190k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 5.6% in Williamsport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,082/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($53k/yr) (locally 2178% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1901 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-2V7JASE3DP7EMY
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29