2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,144 sqft ·
Built 1933
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 4 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,543/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$524
Tax + insurance
−$167
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$324
Net cashflow
$529/mo
Annual
$6,343/yr
Cap rate
12.64%
Cash-on-cash
22.67%
DSCR
2.01
1% rule
1.54%
Cash to close
$27,972
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $529 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#84 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities D-, commute D-, health & safety F.
University City (suburban): math 15% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #297 of 324 in MO (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Pershing Elem. (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,037 of 1,115 statewide, top 94%, 265 students, 100% FRL); University City Sr. High (math 5% / reading 52%, grade F, #409 of 521 statewide, top 79%, 726 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 67% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1933 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 4.7% in University City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1933 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-2VAZ4446Y8R6QH
· Data 4 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29