2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,195 sqft ·
Built 1976
· Condo
· Active
· 133 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$16,981/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$4,400
Tax + insurance
−$1,825
HOA
−$1,767
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$3,566
Net cashflow
$5,423/mo
Annual
$65,078/yr
Cap rate
14.66%
Cash-on-cash
29.88%
DSCR
2.33
1% rule
2.02%
Cash to close
$234,920
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $839k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($65k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($17k rent vs $839k).
It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($738k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $738k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#541 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Market conditions: 526 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Current owner paid $410k; list at $839k implies a 105% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $235k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 14.7% vs local median 3.8% in Sanibel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
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· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29