2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
996 sqft ·
Built 1930
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 16 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,338/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$891
Tax + insurance
−$270
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$281
Net cashflow
$-104/mo
Annual
$-1,252/yr
Cap rate
5.56%
Cash-on-cash
-2.63%
DSCR
0.88
1% rule
0.79%
Cash to close
$47,600
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-104 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $152k (10.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (21.3% below list).
It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $134k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 71/100 on livability (#291 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
West ISD (town): math 49% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #201 of 826 in TX (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: West El (math 63% / reading 47%, grade C, #602 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 582 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-2VC4H3C8QF4EQ8
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29