361 N Post Oak Ln #239

Houston, TX 77024

$165,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,315 sqft · Built 1970 · Condo · Active · 304 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,912/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$532
• HOA: −$736
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-622/mo
• Annual: $-7,469/yr
• Cap rate: 2.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.44%
• DSCR: 0.36
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-622 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $95k (42.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• It's been on market 304 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $95k (42.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (6.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Spring Branch ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #215 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 38% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 313 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $165k implies a 109% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($136k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 304 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?