517 30th St

Newport Beach, CA 92663

$4,395,000D-

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,511 sqft · Built 2004 · MultiFamily · Active · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,418/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$23,048
• Tax + insurance: −$7,325
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$928
• Net cashflow: $-26,883/mo
• Annual: $-322,590/yr
• Cap rate: -1.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -26.21%
• DSCR: -0.17
• 1% rule: 0.10%
• Cash to close: $1,230,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $4.39M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27k ($-323k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $505k (88.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $442k (89.9% below list).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($4.26M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $442k (89.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $470k of equity ($30k loan paydown + $440k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#101 in CA, #3,645 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Newport-Mesa Unified (urban): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #106 of 517 in CA (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 117 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$755k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate -1.0% vs local median 0.6% in Newport Beach — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($142k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 90% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.