7519 Harbor View Way

Seminole, FL 33776

$845,000B

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,566 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Active · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $13,088/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,431
• Tax + insurance: −$1,088
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,749
• Net cashflow: $4,820/mo
• Annual: $57,844/yr
• Cap rate: 13.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.61%
• DSCR: 2.18
• 1% rule: 1.55%
• Cash to close: $236,600

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $845k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($58k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($13k rent vs $845k).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($832k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $832k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#5 in FL, #174 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $325k; list at $845k implies a 160% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $237k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 3.8% in Seminole — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.