6509 Marina Dr

Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40059

$447,500D+

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,825 sqft · Built 1981 · Condo · Active · 86 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,159/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,347
• Tax + insurance: −$950
• HOA: −$841
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,083
• Net cashflow: $-63/mo
• Annual: $-750/yr
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.49%
• DSCR: 1.16
• 1% rule: 1.15%
• Cash to close: $125,300

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath condo listed at $448k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-750/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $436k (2.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $448k).
• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($421k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $421k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Dunn Elementary (math 46% / reading 58%, grade C-, #82 of 676 statewide, top 13%, 468 students, 31% FRL); Kammerer Middle (math 21% / reading 42%, grade F, #125 of 217 statewide, top 63%, 720 students, 52% FRL); Ballard High (math 42% / reading 46%, grade F, #27 of 254 statewide, top 10%, 2,014 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 56% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 27% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Jefferson County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 241 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 11 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $362k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?