430 N Route 9

Cape May Court House, NJ 08210

$185,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1989 · Manufactured · Active · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,777/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$308
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$583
• Net cashflow: $916/mo
• Annual: $10,988/yr
• Cap rate: 12.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.21%
• DSCR: 1.94
• 1% rule: 1.50%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $916 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $185k).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $179k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#323 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A-, housing B+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Middle Township Public School District (suburban): math 15% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #372 of 472 in NJ (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Middle Township Elementary #1 (657 students, 56% FRL); Middle Township Elementary #4 (math 14% / reading 47%, grade F, #303 of 431 statewide, top 72%, 594 students, 52% FRL); Middle Township High School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #327 of 399 statewide, top 82%, 790 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 877 units permitted in Cape May County in 2024 (35 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cape May County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 13 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.