14516 Harper Ave

Dolton, IL 60419

$229,500F

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,391 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Active · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,368/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,204
• Tax + insurance: −$707
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $-40/mo
• Annual: $-478/yr
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.74%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $64,260

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-40 ($-478/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (3.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $230k).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $222k (3.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#263 in IL, #4,883 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Thornton Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 7% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #594 of 620 in IL (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.7%/yr); 129 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 9.3% in Dolton — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $2,368/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 919% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.