3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,750 sqft ·
Built 1948
· SingleFamily
· Under Contract
· 71 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,459/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$503
Tax + insurance
−$130
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$306
Net cashflow
$519/mo
Annual
$6,229/yr
Cap rate
12.78%
Cash-on-cash
23.17%
DSCR
2.03
1% rule
1.52%
Cash to close
$26,880
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $96k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $519 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $96k).
It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($90k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $90k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $664 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 54/100 on livability (#529 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Griffin-Spalding County (suburban): math 13% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #151 of 174 in GA (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Jackson Road Elementary School (math 22% / reading 17%, grade F, #878 of 1,228 statewide, top 75%, 363 students, 98% FRL); Kennedy Road Middle School (math 11% / reading 20%, grade F, #392 of 470 statewide, top 84%, 477 students, 98% FRL); Spalding High School (math 11% / reading 25%, grade F, #258 of 424 statewide, top 62%, 1,252 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 68% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 427 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 342 units permitted in Spalding County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Spalding County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $54k (36%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 35% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 4.3% in Griffin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-2YKSAD3GGAB9C7
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29