15 N 450 E

Escalante, UT 84726

$170,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1973 · Other · Active · 106 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,206/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $-55/mo
• Annual: $-663/yr
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.39%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-55 ($-663/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (29.1% below list).
• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#198 in UT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Garfield District (rural): math 35% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #59 of 80 in UT (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Escalante School (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #332 of 585 statewide, top 58%, 107 students, 51% FRL); Escalante High (math 30% / reading 50%, grade F, #63 of 171 statewide, top 37%, 74 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 57 units permitted in Garfield County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Garfield County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.