10163 Holtzel Rd

Greeley Hill, CA 95311

$179,900F

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 800 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Active · 346 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,133/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax + insurance: −$194
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $-242/mo
• Annual: $-2,901/yr
• Cap rate: 4.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.76%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $50,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-242 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $137k (23.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (37.0% below list).
• It's been on market 346 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $113k (37.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 40/100 on livability (#1,392 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mariposa County Unified (rural): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #282 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 89 units permitted in Mariposa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mariposa County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $135k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 346 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?