1370 Blue Heron Dr

Englewood, FL 34224

$134,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Built 1976 · Manufactured · Pending · 309 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,416/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax + insurance: −$460
• HOA: −$25
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $-74/mo
• Annual: $-887/yr
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.24%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $37,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-887/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $122k (9.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• It's been on market 309 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#321 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Charlotte (suburban): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #22 of 73 in FL (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Myakka River Elementary School (math 65% / reading 60%, grade B, #601 of 2,144 statewide, top 28%, 608 students, 51% FRL); L. A. Ainger Middle School (math 65% / reading 53%, grade B, #144 of 571 statewide, top 26%, 720 students, 40% FRL); Lemon Bay High School (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #148 of 667 statewide, top 23%, 1,360 students, 28% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 737 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,585 units permitted in Charlotte County in 2024 (703 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Charlotte County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $64k (32%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $135k implies a 125% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.8% in Englewood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 309 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.