5026 Water Oak Dr #102

South Bradenton, FL 34207

$175,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1983 · Condo · Active · 192 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,904/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$203
• HOA: −$461
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $-77/mo
• Annual: $-928/yr
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.89%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-77 ($-928/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (7.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in FL, #3,092 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime D+, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: H. S. Moody Elementary School (math 39% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,841 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 606 students, 73% FRL); Electa Lee Magnet Middle School (math 27% / reading 28%, grade F, #495 of 571 statewide, top 87%, 759 students, 68% FRL); Bayshore High School (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #546 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 1,435 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-25 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 362 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $86k; list at $175k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.1% in South Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?