3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,387 sqft ·
Built 2025
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 199 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,500/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,044
Tax + insurance
−$332
HOA
−$25
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$315
Net cashflow
$-215/mo
Annual
$-2,583/yr
Cap rate
4.99%
Cash-on-cash
-4.64%
DSCR
0.79
1% rule
0.75%
Cash to close
$55,720
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k. Condition is rated excellent.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-215 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (15.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (24.6% below list).
It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $150k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,414 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
Pearsall ISD (town): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #810 of 826 in TX (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: 119 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12 units permitted in Frio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Frio County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-30AQEJ2GG3RMK1
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29