1104 W Elm Ave W

Conewago, PA 17331

$135,000C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Built 1989 · Manufactured · Active · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,316/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$153
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $179/mo
• Annual: $2,149/yr
• Cap rate: 7.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.69%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $179 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (2.5% below list).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $132k (2.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conewago Valley SD (suburban): math 39% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #215 of 539 in PA (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 386 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 403 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Adams County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 265% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $100k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.