4 bd · 4.0 ba ·
2,305 sqft ·
Built 2018
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 23 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,939/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,203
Tax + insurance
−$337
HOA
−$130
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$617
Net cashflow
$-347/mo
Annual
$-4,170/yr
Cap rate
5.30%
Cash-on-cash
-3.55%
DSCR
0.84
1% rule
0.70%
Cash to close
$117,600
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $420k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-347 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $359k (14.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $294k (30.0% below list).
It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($414k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $294k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 78/100 on livability (#23 in CO, #2,639 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime F.
El Paso County Colorado School District 49 (urban): math 27% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #27 of 86 in CO (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Bennett Ranch Elementary School (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #540 of 966 statewide, top 57%, 386 students, 21% FRL); Falcon Middle School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #154 of 270 statewide, top 59%, 937 students, 27% FRL); Falcon High School (math 32% / reading 67%, grade D, #115 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 1,248 students, 23% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 523 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,906 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (872 in 5+ unit buildings).
El Paso County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.3% in Colorado Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-30MFPG0DKJ5CGJ
· Data 4 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29