3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,225 sqft ·
Built 1958
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 104 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,579/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$729
Tax + insurance
−$230
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$332
Net cashflow
$288/mo
Annual
$3,453/yr
Cap rate
8.78%
Cash-on-cash
8.87%
DSCR
1.39
1% rule
1.14%
Cash to close
$38,920
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $288 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $126k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 82/100 on livability (#10 in MO, #1,296 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
Fort Osage R-I (rural): math 28% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #213 of 324 in MO (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Elm Grove Elem. (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #879 of 1,115 statewide, top 81%, 325 students, 69% FRL); Fort Osage High (math 33% / reading 48%, grade F, #240 of 521 statewide, top 46%, 1,557 students, 39% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 106 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,002 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (2,271 in 5+ unit buildings).
Jackson County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
7 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 5.0% in Independence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-30YRMK1HRGV30W
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29