9500 S Ocean Dr #208

Hutchinson Island South, FL 34957

$349,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,224 sqft · Built 1982 · Condo · Active · 278 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,938/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax + insurance: −$439
• HOA: −$943
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$827
• Net cashflow: $-101/mo
• Annual: $-1,215/yr
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.24%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 1.13%
• Cash to close: $97,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $349k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-101 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $331k (5.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $349k).
• It's been on market 278 days — a 12% lower offer ($307k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $307k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#783 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing B; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manatee Academy K-8 (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 1,664 students, 65% FRL); Southern Oaks Middle School (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 894 students, 76% FRL); Fort Pierce Central High School (math 15% / reading 45%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 3,091 students, 62% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 538 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.0% in Hutchinson Island South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,938/mo this rent would consume 67% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 946% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 278 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?