4050 4th St N #122

St. Petersburg, FL 33703

$115,000D+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 640 sqft · Built 1971 · Condo · Pending · 56 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,757/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$324
• HOA: −$529
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $-67/mo
• Annual: $-809/yr
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.04%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 1.53%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-67 ($-809/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $103k (10.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $103k (10.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: John M. Sexton Elementary School (math 48% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,223 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 449 students, 71% FRL); Meadowlawn Middle School (math 29% / reading 30%, grade F, #469 of 571 statewide, top 84%, 832 students, 69% FRL); Northeast High School (math 35% / reading 47%, grade F, #289 of 667 statewide, top 44%, 1,736 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 48% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pinellas average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 30% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 457 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $89k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.6% in St. Petersburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?