17 Midland Ct

Springfield, IL 62702

$115,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 869 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,222/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$213
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $149/mo
• Annual: $1,791/yr
• Cap rate: 7.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.56%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $149 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#122 in IL, #2,138 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Springfield SD 186 (urban): math 17% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #438 of 620 in IL (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Fairview Elem School (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,927 of 2,056 statewide, top 100%, 279 students, 0% FRL); Washington Middle School (math 3% / reading 6%, grade F, #650 of 665 statewide, top 98%, 531 students, 0% FRL); Lanphier High School (math 10% / reading 16%, grade F, #501 of 693 statewide, top 73%, 1,058 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 64% district-wide (64 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 7% at this address vs 20% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Springfield SD 186 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 225 units permitted in Sangamon County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sangamon County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask is 15% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $100k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.9% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.