3805 Horseshoe Creek Road, Victor Rd

Hico, WV 25938

$115,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,122 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Active · 93 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $960/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$202
• Net cashflow: $-36/mo
• Annual: $-436/yr
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.36%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-36 ($-436/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $110k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $96k (16.5% below list).
• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $96k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (6.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#333 in WV) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Fayette County Schools (suburban): math 17% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #51 of 55 in WV (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ansted Elementary (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #148 of 377 statewide, top 49%, 190 students, 0% FRL); Oak Hill Middle School (math 14% / reading 26%, grade F, #104 of 109 statewide, top 96%, 656 students, 0% FRL); Midland Trail High (math 15% / reading 38%, grade F, #87 of 110 statewide, top 79%, 623 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 54% district-wide (54 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 26 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fayette County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $115k implies a 539% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (6.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.