4807 Pilot Rd

Riner, VA 24138

$129,500B

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built 2007 · SingleFamily · Active · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,430/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$679
• Tax + insurance: −$282
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $169/mo
• Annual: $2,022/yr
• Cap rate: 8.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.78%
• DSCR: 1.35
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $36,260

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $169 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($895 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#185 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Montgomery County Public School District (urban): math 57% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #47 of 131 in VA (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Auburn Elementary (math 53% / reading 60%, grade C+, #630 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 558 students, 50% FRL); Auburn Middle (math 40% / reading 64%, grade C+, #218 of 342 statewide, top 65%, 286 students, 49% FRL); Auburn High (math 62% / reading 82%, grade B+, #134 of 319 statewide, top 45%, 381 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 32% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 323 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $130k implies a 476% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.