3-8 Florence Tollgate Pl

Florence, NJ 08518

$90,000C+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 774 sqft · Built 1974 · Townhouse · Active · 261 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,850/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax + insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$719
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $120/mo
• Annual: $1,442/yr
• Cap rate: 7.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.72%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 2.06%
• Cash to close: $25,200

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $120 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 261 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#255 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Florence Township School District (suburban): math 19% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #301 of 472 in NJ (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Roebling Elementary School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,143 of 1,303 statewide, top 88%, 373 students, 40% FRL); Florence Riverfront School (math 17% / reading 47%, grade F, #285 of 431 statewide, top 67%, 649 students, 34% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 39% of rent.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,161 units permitted in Burlington County in 2024 (988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Burlington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 8 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask is 4400% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.6% in Florence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 261 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.