3108 Ferndale Ave

Baltimore, MD 21207

$389,000D

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,756 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Active · 97 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,031/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,040
• Tax + insurance: −$590
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$636
• Net cashflow: $-236/mo
• Annual: $-2,830/yr
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.60%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $108,920

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $389k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-236 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $347k (10.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $303k (22.1% below list).
• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($354k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $303k (22.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $40k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $37k appreciation (9.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 126 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$64k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $3,031/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 2139% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?