3 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,627 sqft ·
Built 2026
· Townhouse
· Active
· 2 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,584/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,715
Tax + insurance
−$545
HOA
−$144
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$543
Net cashflow
$-363/mo
Annual
$-4,354/yr
Cap rate
4.96%
Cash-on-cash
-4.75%
DSCR
0.79
1% rule
0.79%
Cash to close
$91,568
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $279k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-363 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (1.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (7.4% below list).
Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $258k (7.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#42 in GA, #4,721 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
Gwinnett County (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #32 of 174 in GA (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Grayson Elementary School (math 53% / reading 55%, grade C, #204 of 1,228 statewide, top 17%, 1,009 students, 48% FRL); Bay Creek Middle School (math 30% / reading 43%, grade F, #167 of 470 statewide, top 38%, 1,330 students, 52% FRL); Grayson High School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #297 of 424 statewide, top 74%, 3,284 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 858 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,607 units permitted in Gwinnett County in 2024 (1,277 in 5+ unit buildings).
Gwinnett County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.6% in Grayson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-32K9B7F9S0A978
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29