2823 W 37th St

New York, NY 11224

$649,000D+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1993 · SingleFamily · Active · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,742/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,403
• Tax + insurance: −$1,244
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$996
• Net cashflow: $-901/mo
• Annual: $-10,813/yr
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.13%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $181,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $649k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-901 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $490k (24.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $474k (26.9% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $474k (26.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Elm Tree Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 806 students, 94% FRL); Is 98 Bay Academy (math 96% / reading 96%, grade A+, #2 of 729 statewide, top 0%, 1,488 students, 63% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 114 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 10,063 units permitted in Kings County in 2024 (9,789 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kings County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $157k; list at $649k implies a 313% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$59k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,742/mo this rent would consume 130% of the median local household income ($44k/yr) (locally 4426% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.