1016 Karen Ln

Goldthwaite, TX 76844

$114,500C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,556 sqft · Built 1981 · SingleFamily · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,138/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$600
• Tax + insurance: −$240
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$239
• Net cashflow: $58/mo
• Annual: $697/yr
• Cap rate: 6.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.17%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $32,060

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $114k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $58 ($697/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $114k (0.6% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $114k (0.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($792 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (8.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#725 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Goldthwaite ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #50 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Goldthwaite El (math 67% / reading 62%, grade B, #257 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 242 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP.
• Mills County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (8.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 1.7% in Goldthwaite — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.