1606 Willow Wren Ct #305

Florissant, MO 63033

$52,500B+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 736 sqft · Built 1984 · Condo · Pending · 69 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,213/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$275
• Tax + insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$252
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $360/mo
• Annual: $4,319/yr
• Cap rate: 14.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.38%
• DSCR: 2.31
• 1% rule: 2.31%
• Cash to close: $14,700

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $52k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $360 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $52k).
• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $49k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($363 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#82 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, schools D.
• Ferguson-Florissant R-II (suburban): math 7% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #311 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 221 active listings in the ZIP; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $52k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 6.3% in Florissant — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.