3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,490 sqft ·
Built 1983
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 1 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,985/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$503
Tax + insurance
−$160
HOA
−$42
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$417
Net cashflow
$863/mo
Annual
$10,351/yr
Cap rate
17.07%
Cash-on-cash
38.51%
DSCR
2.71
1% rule
2.07%
Cash to close
$26,880
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $96k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $863 ($10k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $96k).
Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $664 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Morton Ranch J H (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #660 of 1,662 statewide, top 41%, 1,184 students, 75% FRL); Morton Ranch H S (math 31% / reading 55%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 2,718 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 27% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 41% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Katy ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 744 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
8 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-1.3% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-33EAVNBM3MJ2GG
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29