3 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,104 sqft ·
Built 1954
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 81 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,174/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$367
Tax + insurance
−$174
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$246
Net cashflow
$387/mo
Annual
$4,645/yr
Cap rate
15.09%
Cash-on-cash
31.41%
DSCR
2.40
1% rule
1.68%
Cash to close
$19,572
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $70k. Condition is rated poor.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $387 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 64/100 on livability (#158 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
Fayette County (rural): math 17% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #71 of 129 in AL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo; built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP.
Fayette County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 6.0% in Fayette — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: kitchen cabinets
— severely dated and in poor condition
Major: bathroom fixtures
— outdated and in poor condition
Major: roof
— visible wear and potential leaks
Major: exterior paint
— brick siding in need of repainting
Major: flooring
— dated carpet and worn flooring
Major: interior paint
— paint peeling in multiple rooms
CashFlowRE · CFR-33RJXBA85DAWV9
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29