4 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,075 sqft ·
Built 1985
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 23 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$964/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$477
Tax + insurance
−$65
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$203
Net cashflow
$220/mo
Annual
$2,638/yr
Cap rate
9.19%
Cash-on-cash
10.35%
DSCR
1.46
1% rule
1.06%
Cash to close
$25,480
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $91k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $220 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($964 rent vs $91k).
It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($90k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $90k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $3k of equity ($629 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 53/100 on livability (#484 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, crime F.
Pike County (rural): math 19% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #68 of 129 in AL (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 42 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Pike County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $20k; list at $91k implies a 355% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-34NHYM80ZPY5DM
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29