39 Vail Avenue 117a Ave Unit 117 A

Angel Fire, NM 87710

$39,000B

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 956 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Active · 212 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,397/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$205
• Tax + insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$387
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $447/mo
• Annual: $5,364/yr
• Cap rate: 20.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.12%
• DSCR: 3.19
• 1% rule: 3.58%
• Cash to close: $10,920

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $39k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $447 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $39k).
• It's been on market 212 days — a 12% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $34k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.0%/yr); year-one equity from $270 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $391 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#104 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Watch: housing C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Cimarron Municipal Schools (rural): math 18% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #28 of 95 in NM (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eagle Nest Elementary (math 15% / reading 84%, grade D+, #17 of 68 statewide, top 34%, 96 students, 49% FRL); Moreno Valley High (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #36 of 110 statewide, top 45%, 52 students, 56% FRL, charter) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 30% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Cimarron Municipal Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
• Market conditions: 443 active listings in the ZIP.
• Colfax County population projected at -39% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-1.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 212 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.