50 80|50 Private Residence Club Canyon Blvd #b9-2 Unit B9-2

Mammoth Lakes, CA 93546

$30,000D+

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 2006 · Condo · Active · 121 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,199/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax + insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$1,503
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$672
• Net cashflow: $817/mo
• Annual: $9,801/yr
• Cap rate: 38.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 116.68%
• DSCR: 6.19
• 1% rule: 10.66%
• Cash to close: $8,400

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $30k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $817 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $30k).
• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#213 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools D, crime D, cost of living F.
• Mammoth Unified (town): math 37% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #549 of 1,400 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 47% of rent.
• Market conditions: 252 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 123 units permitted in Mono County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mono County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 39.0% vs local median 1.3% in Mammoth Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($106k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?