10710 Red Shiner Run

San Antonio, TX 78224

$209,499C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,484 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,769/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,099
• Tax + insurance: −$349
• HOA: −$33
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $-83/mo
• Annual: $-997/yr
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.70%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $58,660

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $209k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-83 ($-997/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (15.5% below list).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($203k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $177k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Southwest ISD (rural): math 21% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #701 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Spicewood Park El (math 16% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 593 students, 93% FRL); Southwest H S (math 17% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,152 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 276 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.