Cedar Canyon 2020 - BOYL Plan

Post Falls, ID 83854

$198,900C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,534 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 121 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,021/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,043
• Tax + insurance: −$332
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $222/mo
• Annual: $2,665/yr
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.79%
• DSCR: 1.21
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $55,692

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $222 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#1 in ID, #198 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Post Falls District (suburban): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #31 of 92 in ID (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 625 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,606 units permitted in Kootenai County in 2024 (154 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kootenai County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.2% in Post Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.