54502 Church Rd

Nassau Village-Ratliff, FL 32011

$245,900D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1981 · SingleFamily · Active · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,401/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,290
• Tax + insurance: −$147
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $-330/mo
• Annual: $-3,964/yr
• Cap rate: 4.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.76%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $68,852

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $246k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-330 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (23.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (43.0% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $140k (43.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Nassau (town): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #4 of 73 in FL (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 953 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.2% in Nassau Village-Ratliff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.